Indo-Pacific Geopolitics and US-India relations | Talk | Ashley J. Tellis

 

Indian Foreign Policy Predicaments & Sea-Power

Security challenges facing India today are unprecedented. The act of China occupying strategic pockets of Indian territories in Ladakh in midst of pandemic in full glare of the international community, is by far the toughest test nationalist Govt of India is subjected to. However, aggression is not the only issue that is bothering India. Signs of alienation and shifting loyalties emanating from its immediate neighbours and friends like Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar are also sending ominous signal hard to ignore.  

As the Juggernaut of Chinese BRI rumbles down the shores of south Asia from all direction with CPEC and Gwadar in Pakistan, Chahbahar in Iran, Tibet-Kathmandu railway in Nepal, lucrative contracts for bridges, roads, rail and ports in Bangladesh, CMEC in Myanmar, Hambantota in Sri Lank with a determined persistence, the possibility of India continuing as a moot bystander has become untenable. These mutually unrelated projects, when clubbed together become, de-facto projections of Chinese state power and its increasing stranglehold over the Indian subcontinent.

In Indian Ocean Region (IOR) too, Chinese Navy is persistent in increasing its footprints incrementally. Acquisition of exclusive rights in critical seaports in IOR, disproportionate financing and supporting Pakistani naval build-up, stealth exercise of Chinese nuclear submarines in IOR,  are all illustrative of China’s strategic designs and its contempt for India’s hold over its own region. If left unchecked, It will be only a matter of time,  when China-Pak combine may start ruling the waves of IOR. Above developments have the potential to rob India of its strategic space and reduce its status in this subcontinent substantially.

The grim picture painted above, begs some deep introspection. Not that Indian policy makers are oblivious. Series of actions taken by the Indian establishment to redefine India’s strategic, diplomatic and military alliances with important global and regional powers to counter China are already underway and much in public domain. However, the question is, are the actions taken recently to bolster India’s security needs adequate? Does it constitute merely  reactions driven by events or are they indicative of a well meditated principle, long term plan, a detail blueprint or a thoroughly debated and deliberated new “DOCTRINE” to protect the core security interests of India in the times to come?  Indian strategic community needs to dwell on these matters much more in depth and with much more urgency than what is visible in the environment. By no means, the dynamics of shifting fundamental of India’s historic foreign relation paradigms needs be treated as business as usual.  

It is pointless to find flaws with the policies perused by successive governments because the fault lies not with those policies but the very foundations from which they flowed out, to meet the needs of a bygone era as understood by the cold war generation. Over a period of time, they have culminated into an un-enviable state in which India finds itself today. Some major fault lines in the very foundation of erstwhile Indian foreign policy approach that,  to a great extent is already under rectification, needs highlighting for further substantial course correction. These are -

Role & Responsibility as a Regional Power.

 Geography, size, population, and nature itself had thrusted upon India the stature of a regional power. It was not merely a title for adornment but entailed huge responsibilities and appetite to take tough actions when needed. Abdication has proved fatal. It is ironic  that India never had the above specific role kept central to its foreign policy paradigms. Instead it chased a weak and pacifist policy of neutrality, non-interference and non-alignment. No foundational doctrine or principles were ever laid down in India to guide successive governments to follow foreign policies befitting the above national profile, as Monroe had done for America at the early stages of its national development.

Allowing extra regional powers to setup and operate facilities inimical to India within its own regional sphere of influence is a sacrilege that a regional power can perform only at its own doom. Geopolitical theorists, Nicholas J Spykman words are prophetic in Indian context -"political equilibrium is neither a gift of the gods nor an inherently stable condition. It results from the active intervention of man, from the operation of political forces. States cannot afford to wait passively for the happy time when a miraculously achieved balance of power will bring peace and security. If they wish to survive, they must be willing to go to war to preserve a balance against the growing hegemonic of the period."

 

Playing Pivotal Role in Regional Infrastructure Development

 

India always needed a strong, efficient and effective long and short term plans to build  regional connectivity along with its own domestic infrastructure that could sync with the need and aspirations of the region to keep  its neighbours bound together.  Unfortunately, too  little was done in this area beyond cosmetics. Few Indian projects executed in neighbourhood remained diminutive in size, shabby in execution and limited in its scope and impact. No wonder, China is now filing up that wide gap, at much discomfiture of India . It is still not too late to correct this deficiency. India must accord priority and use its international clout and favourable atmospherics to bring big ticket international infrastructure development programs in this subcontinent to wrest the initiative from China and ring-fence areas of strategic concern from future Chinese investments. SAARC (minus Pak) must be revived with vigour. Alternate regional models, much attractive than the Chines model, of joint inter-regional infrastructure projects financed by international financing agencies on easier and more transparent terms and executed within local expertise involving local skill, technology, men & material that benefits the host nations must be worked out and presented to the neighbourhood to counter the charm of Chinese BRI. 

 

Use of Sea Power  to Influence Geopolitics

 

One of the greatest flaws of India’s foreign policy orientation had been its lack of recognition of sea as an instrument of state power. Not using the unique geographical advantages gifted to it by nature at sea to maintain regional equilibrium has put India in a tight spot today.

 The profound influence of sea upon the wealth and strength of countries had long been recognised universally in geopolitics. Countries with greater naval power, always had greater economic, diplomatic & geopolitical impact - a lesson that Indian diplomacy mostly ignored.

 In the current scenario, Indian Army and Airforce, who undoubtedly are among the finest in the world,  constitute predominantly defensive elements of our national security mechanism, designed primarily to counter  Sino-Pak threat at land and Air at our borders where at best it can attain a local parity with advancing forces to ward off their hostile advances.* However, to have a decisive edge, which alone matters in geopolitics, it is only the Navy that can deliver. This is because India has a tremendous geographical advantage against China at seas in the form of Andaman & Nicobar islands as “Gatekeepers of Malacca” and right up to the coasts of African which is China’s economic life line and where Chinese commercial and naval ships are most vulnerable. Therefore , it is high time India recognises that its salvation lies at sea not land or air, where it can actually twist the Chinese arm to the extent it can hurt its commercial interests to force it back to the negotiating table.

 *(Provided Indian Army and Airforce develop credible capabilities to intercept and disrupt energy and commercial supply lines passing through Aksai Chin Karakorum highway & CPEC which is also the “Chinese nightmare” that lies at the heart of current  Ladakh crisis)

 International Alliances

In the current context, it is dangerous to stick to India’s traditional philosophy of eternal neutrality. Strategic planners in India have come to accept the fact that it’s deteriorating security standing in the region is a direct consequence of its impractical infatuation with this very pacifist paradigm. Instead giving “strategic autonomy” these policies over the years have reduced India into a state where defending its own territorial integrity, all by itself, has become untenable. The need of the hour, therefore, is to have a clear and resolute foreign policy  that can redeem India from this  quagmire. Geopolitics dictate that there is no security in being just strong enough to defend oneself. The real security lies in being a few notches stronger than the adversary. Despite huge asymmetry, India can still attain that critical edge over China, at least in IOR and Indo-Pacific with the help of geography and  formidable naval alliances with the navies of liberal democratic forces of the world coming together to oppose Chinese hegemonism. Practical objective of state should be to improve its own relative strength constantly vis a vis its adversaries, to counter the challenges of its time. Foreign policy cannot be treated as a means to uphold intangible and unproven principles at the cost of national security. The true balance is the one which neutralizes immediate adversary, giving the home state the deciding edge.

 

 

It is quite obvious that Indian navy, in its current shape and size, cannot accomplish the task of bringing China to its knees, all by itself. But using favorable international mood, right kind of naval alliances, the navy  can perform miracles for India that can not only pull India decisively out of its current security woes and tilt the balance of power in South Asia . For India it is clearly the time to put its bet on sea.  

Nations that renounce struggle and choose inaction will cease to command respect and  ability to influence international relations either for good or evil.

About Author -

RS Mehta is a veteran IAF officer who is researching

“Geopolitical Impact of BRI on South Asia and Indian ocean Region”

at Amity University.